Forecasting A&E activity: be prepared this Christmas

With the winter season upon us, Accident & Emergency (A&E) managers and commissioners alike will be keeping a watchful eye over A&E activity and the corresponding resource requirements. Frontier (Europe) has today published a new A&E planner that could help staff and managers of A&E departments better predict and prepare for pressures on activity. This in turn could help prevent some of the damaging scenarios for A&E that have been discussed in the media from materialising.

The planner draws on Frontier’s research for NHS England, which found strongly predictable patterns influencing A&E activity, in particular relating to day of the week, month of the year and bank holidays. Such patterns can be used to predict likely A&E crunch points over the coming year. Knowing when an A&E department is likely to be busy will help A&E managers to plan staffing levels accordingly. For instance, this Christmas, Frontier’s analysis suggests there will be both peaks and troughs in A&E activity, allowing staff to enjoy at least some of the festive season.

Frontier (Europe) regularly advises public and third sector clients on issues relating to healthcare and public policy.

For more information, please contact Goran Serdarevic at, or call +44 (0) 20 7031 7000.


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