What does our model show?

Our model showed a strong correlation between activity and the following factors:

  • Day of the week
  • Month of the year
  • Bank holidays
  • Whether we were considering attendances by a patient at an A&E or their admission.

 

Black Monday, tricky Friday

Monday is undoubtedly the busiest day of the week for an A&E as both attendances and admissions are at their maximum. Activity then quietens down as the week progresses but Friday sees a spike in admissions back to Monday levels whilst attendances are at their lowest. Weekends are extremely quiet for admissions. Attendances are also low on Saturday but start ramping up on Sunday.

The winter-spring long-haul

Our results on the effect of the month show a long period of high workload at the A&E starting with the rise of admissions in December and ending with the last hurrah of attendances in July. We found though that admissions and attendances are mostly “inversely correlated” – if the A&E is busy with one, it is generally not busy with the other. The exceptions are March, when both attendances and admissions are high, and August, which is generally a quiet month.

Bank holidays matter

Our data shows that there are very few admissions on bank holidays. It is perhaps unsurprising as patients are likely to want to stay with their loved ones for Christmas or Easter.

 


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